Jeff Goldsmith is President of Health Futures, Inc. He is also Associate Professor
of Medical Education in the School of Medicine at the University of Virginia. For
11 years, ending in 1990, he was a lecturer in the Graduate School of Business at
the University of Chicago, on health services management and policy. He has also
lectured on these topics at the Harvard Business School, the Wharton School of
Finance, Johns Hopkins, Washington University and the University of California at
Berkeley. His interests include biotechnology, international health systems and the
future of health services.
From 1982 to 1994, he served as National Advisor for Healthcare for the firm Ernst
and Young, and provided strategy consultation to a wide variety of healthcare
systems, health plans, supply and technology firms. Prior to 1982, he was Director of
Planning and Government Affairs at the University of Chicago Medical Center and
Special Assistant to the Dean of the Pritzker School of Medicine. From 1973 to 1975,
he worked in the Office of the Governor, State of Illinois as a fiscal and policy
analyst, and Special Assistant to the State Budget Director.
He earned his doctorate in Sociology from the University of Chicago in 1973,
studying complex organizations, sociology of the professions and politics of
developing nations. He graduated from Reed College in 1970, majoring in
psychology and classics, earning a Woodrow Wilson Fellowship for graduate
study in 1971.
Jeff was the recipient of the Corning Award for excellence in health planning from
the American Hospital Association's Society for Healthcare Planning in l990 and
has received the Dean Conley Award for best healthcare article three times (l985,
l990 and 1995) from the American College of Healthcare Executives. He has written
five articles for the Harvard Business Review and has been a source for articles on
medical technology and health services for the Wall Street Journal, the New York
Times, Business Week, Time and other publications. Jeff is also the author of The Long Baby Boom: An Optimistic Vision for a Graying Generation and Digital Medicine: A Guide for Healthcare Leaders, as well as his latest which he co-authored, The Sorcerer's Apprentice: How Medical Imaging is Reshaping Health Care. Goldsmith's solutions-based outlook and timely forecasting of future healthcare trends give optimism to audiences at a time when the health services industry is undergoing significant upheaval.
Jeff is a Director of the Cerner Corporation, a healthcare informatics firm as well as a member of the editorial board of Health Affairs. He is also Director of Essent Healthcare, a hospital
management firm, and a member of the Board of Advisors of Burrill and Company, a private merchant bank in biotechnology and health sciences.
Jeff is the father of two sons, Jason and Trevor, and a daughter, Amelia. He is married to Laurel Olson, who has worked as a
healthcare executive and consultant. He is an avid snow and water skier and, with
his wife, collects Native American art and artifacts. He is a native of Portland,
Oregon and lives in Charlottesville, Virginia.
NOTE: Jeff's topics are all evolving at varying paces, as new knowledge and analysis becomes available. They are modular, and can be mixed and matched to respond to client interests and needs. No two versions of any one topic are the same. Clients are encouraged to frame their own topics and challenge Mr. Goldsmith to address them.
- What if the Crowd is Wrong: Six Debatable Propositions about the Future of Healthcare and What They Mean for Strategy - "Everyone knows" what the future of US healthcare looks like. It's unanimous! We're moving away from fee-for-service to population health- and from "volume to value." The health system is shifting from "treatment to prevention." Integrated Delivery Networks (IDNs) are the future state of healthcare organization. "Disruptive technologies" will undermine the traditional businesses of hospitals and physicians. And empowered consumers will force the health system to be accountable for the cost of care and move healthcare markets. This talk asks the provocative question: what if these things don't actually happen? And what is the state of the evidence that they are actually happening? How would your strategy change (for hospitals, physicians, health plans and the medical technology sector) if the future actually turns out to be different from what "everyone" expects. Jeff Goldsmith talks about the future of healthcare payment and delivery reform, how it is affecting local markets around the US and talks about the "no regrets" strategies that position healthcare's major actors for an uncertain, post-health reform future.
- 2035: What Will the Health System Look Like? Healthcare is on the cusp of transformative technological changes that will reshape not only the care system, but also increase life expectancy and function. This talk explores the major features of the digital health revolution: clinical genomics, the electronic health record. digital imaging, mHelath, connectivity/social media and the brain/machine interface. It will not only explain in English where these technologies stand in their state of development, but make specific forecast of what we can expect from them in twenty years-in 2035. It will also explore why technologies fail to scale up to the societal level and what it takes for them to succeed- and change our lives.
- The Tragedy of Health Reform - Despite compelling unmet needs, the bold health reforms enacted in 2010 in the Affordable Care Act appear to be faltering. A lethal combination of political controversy, flawed design and incompetent implementation have put health reform in peril. What went wrong? How will the unfolding of expanded health coverage, increased regulation and new models of care and coverage affect the health system and society? Will employers abandon health coverage and push their employees into the Exchanges? Will the Exchanges revitalize or destroy private health insurance? How will health reform affect caregivers and patients? Will the Medicaid program sustain a 20% increase in enrollments? Can or should health reform be saved? A veteran health policy analyst looks at ObamaCare and looks ahead.
- Slouching Toward Value: The Future of Health Care Payment - One major theme of health reform has been to change how healthcare is paid for to reward higher value care. In a $2.8 billion industry, the uncertainty about future payment models has created confusion about strategic direction in hospitals and systems, physician communities and health insurers, as well as anxiety among patients and their families. Ironically, a Democratic health reform has produced Republican outcomes- high degrees of consumer economic exposure, narrowing networks, and a welter of confusing new choices. Meanwhile, new payment models- pay for performance, bundled payment, accountable care organizations, patient centered medical homes- have been given fresh impetus. How will all these experiments turn out? How SHOULD healthcare be paid for? This talk focuses on the winners and losers in the search for more accountable and affordable care, and the models and strategies that are likely to prevail.
- Is the Health Cost Dragon Dead or Sleeping? - Health costs have grown at the slowest pace in the past five years since Dwight Eisenhower's last year in office (1960), five years before Medicare. No-one is clear on the causes. Is it the recession? Is it ObamaCare? Is it new "accountable" payment and delivery models? Is it "market competition" or increased regulation? Jeff Goldsmith's startling answer is: "none of the above". This talk unravels and explains in English a remarkable piece of economic news- the cessation of a more than forty year run of inflation in health costs. Is this good or bad news? Is the relief from rising health costs sustainable? Will it last? This talk examines the spreading "recession" in US healthcare, and how health costs and access will be affected by the retirement of the 76 million person baby boom generation.
- Can Hospitals Survive? Hospital Strategy in a Maturing Market - After decades of seemingly continuous expansion, hospital inpatient utilization in the United States has fallen for five years in a row. Despite forecasts a decade ago of significant bed shortages, many hospitals and systems find themselves with excess capacity. At the same time, the uncertainties surrounding ObamaCare and the pressures created by the recession have stressed hospitals, resulting in declining earnings and increased pressure from physicians and patients. Merger and acquisition activity spiked after 2010's health reforms, and continues unabated. How will the private insurance reforms contained in ObamaCare affect hospitals' financial futures? Can hospital systems that have sought to become "unavoidable" through mergers survive the transition to narrow network insurance products and rising transparency and consumer choice? Can hospitals survive this transition? How can hospitals become the "hospitals of choice" in their communities and regions.